Trend Predictions
Trend predictions
By Mohanad Alwadiya, Managing Director of Harbor Real Estate
To the questions: “What will be the most prominent trends in Dubai’s real estate industry in the future?” I reply that short term investors and speculators were hit with the ‘perfect storm’ last year. Those who were taking the longer term view and had planned their cash flows accordingly have been able to weather the storm; those who were speculating, hoping to spin the property for short-term gain, got caught in the storm; while those that sold prior to mid 2008 left town unscathed.
During the second half 2009, the market witnessed the emergence of institutional and private investors that were focused on acquiring assets from distressed sellers. We anticipate this trend to continue in 2010 and we also expect more end user demand will flow into the market once lending starts again.
Another noticeable investment focus that emerged during the second half of 2009 is the investment in income producing assets with the prime consideration being yield. In today’s environment to try and predict capital appreciation is very difficult and, while in the long term property bought today will certainly appreciate, the market is too volatile to start predicting capital appreciation rates.
Overall, many buyers still believe that real estate is a lucrative investment option. People want to take the opportunity of owning their family home or take advantage of the investment opportunities that emerged in the market today. The demand is there, it just needs some liquidity to enable the conversion of intention into transaction.
What are the best properties for investment, selling, leasing?
There now exists a greater range of choice and buyers can succeed in obtaining true value and quality in the property they seek to purchase. It is now that the fundamentals of purchasing or leasing real estate come to the fore; location, quality construction, infrastructure, return on investment and yield.
The most sought after assets today are the yield producing assets as they offer investors an opportunity to enjoy annual yields that remain higher than the global average yields.
The best assets to invest in are residential units within completed developments and established communities that offer its residents (owners and tenants) a rich lifestyle experience.
In addition, the current attractive price points and the overall low supply of villas compared to apartments (estimated at 13 percent of the total residential units), offers a safer and more robust investment opportunity for investors.
When it comes to offices and retail, these two asset types were affected by the slowed commercial activity and the expected high supply. Hence this had a direct impact on the appetite of investors. Having said that, there are some fantastic investment opportunities in both asset types where some office or retail properties are rented by renowned brands with long term lease contracts which offer greater stability in terms of annual yields to investors. It is known fact that companies do not relocate as often as residential tenants.
Investment funds and bonds are always good options for investors that don’t have the time to manage their investment transaction process. But it is definitely an option for long term investors.
What are the difficulties faced by the real estate industry?
The industry is experiencing some serious growth pains but will recover. We believe we will see a much improved level of activity in the second quarter of 2010 as the world economy strengthens, credit becomes more accessible and Dubai re-launches itself as a preferred place to do commerce and trade. The launch of Burj Khalifa has helped strengthen Dubai’s global position as an innovative and leading destination and the media coverage it obtained definitely helped boost the awareness of Dubai.
The recovery phase will need to be driven by fundamental and solid economic drivers, not speculation. Population growth, driven by an increase in commercial activity will be the primary determinant of a real estate recovery as Dubai attracts new business entities, investors and owner occupiers who have a long term outlook to their participation in Dubai’s economy.
We believe that the market is currently going through a phase of positive stabilization. The long anticipated recovery cannot be claimed as yet, despite indications that started during the third quarter of 2009 suggesting the market had bottomed, and early signs of recovery will be evident in the next few quarters.
Of course, there are fundamental economic issues to be addressed, some of which are central to hastening an overall economic recovery which, in turn, will aid the real estate recovery. The good news is that the Dubai and UAE government are already addressing these issues.
The issues can be summarized as follows:
• Inevitable and unavoidable exposure to the rapidly deteriorating global economic condition.
• The inevitable downturn of domestic consumption and low confidence levels of investors.
• Scarcity of credit and funding sources for private and institutional buyers.
• The strength of the US dollar/Dirham and its effect on foreign investment.
• Corruption and transparency and its effect on investor confidence in our opinion, the biggest issue remains the lack of availability of credit. There are buyers who are willing to invest in their future, but the availability of funds is the major inhibitor.









